What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : July 23, 2012

Freddie Mac mortgage ratesMortgage markets improved last week on expectations for new Federal Reserve stimulus, plus ongoing concerns about the European Union’s future.

Mortgage-backed bonds climbed to new all-time highs, which helped conforming mortgage rates drop to new all-time lows.

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate is now 3.53% nationwide, according to government mortgage-backer Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage rate survey. The 3.53% rate is available to mortgage applicants willing to pay 0.7 discount points plus a full set of closing costs where 1 discount point is equal to 1 percent of your loan size.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage rate dropped last week, too, falling to 2.83% nationwide, on average.

Even as mortgage rates in Belfast drop, however, rate shoppers should be wary of a potential rate reversal. This is because July’s rapid drop in mortgage rates, mostly, has been fueled by market speculation.

First, with employment data lagging, inflation pressures low, and slower-than-expected economic growth, Wall Street now believes that the Federal Reserve will launch its third round of quantitative easing next week, a move that would likely include large-scale mortgage bond purchases.

New, Fed-led demand for mortgage bonds would lead mortgage rates lower for homeowners and rate shoppers throughout Maine.

And, second, investors are preparing for a potential sovereign debt default in Spain, the Eurozone’s fourth largest economy. The Greek economy, by contrast, which faces similar struggles, is 5 times smaller than Spain’s. A Spain default, too, would likely lead U.S. mortgage rates lower.

That said, if neither event comes to pass — if the Fed passes no new stimulus and Spain receives an ample-sized bailout — mortgage rates would be expected to rise as Wall Street re-adjusts its expectations for the future.

The change would happen quickly, too.

This week, markets will continue to take their cues from the Fed and the Eurozone, but with an eye toward U.S. housing data. The housing market is linked to economic growth so strong results may lead mortgage rates higher.

The June New Home Sales report is released Wednesday; the June Pending Home Sales Index is released Thursday.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : July 9, 2012

Unemployment RateMortgage markets improved last week as concerns for U.S. economic growth wrestled attention away, albeit temporarily, from the Eurozone. Mortgage bonds improved to record prices, lowering mortgage rates across Maine and nationwide.

The biggest news of last week’s holiday-shortened trading week was the Friday release of last month’s Non-Farm Payrolls report.

In it, the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the economy added 80,000 net new jobs in June, and that the initial tallies for April and May were overstated by a combined two thousand jobs. Wall Street had expected to see at least 100,000 jobs created in June.

When the actual number of jobs fell short of expectations, stock markets sold off and bond markets gained.

According to Freddie Mac, last week’s 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate averaged 3.62% nationwide for borrowers with conforming mortgages willing to pay 0.8 discount points at closing, plus a full set of closing costs.

For every $100,000 borrowed on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage, you’ll pay just $456 per month — the lowest in history.

15-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 2.89% with 0.7 discount points.

Both products set record-low mortgage rates, based on Freddie Mac’s data. However, by the week’s end, after the jobs report, both rates had moved lower still to the benefit of Bangor home buyers and rate shoppers. 

This week, with little new economic data set for release, mortgage markets are expected to turn attention back to Europe. Early Monday, Greece’s new government won a key confidence vote in Parliament which ends a period of uncertainty during which the nation-state was without a clear leader.

This is one step toward resolving the debt issues that have plagued Greece but not the last step. How markets respond to Greece’s next actions will, in part, shape the direction of mortgage rates here in the United States. With optimism, mortgage rates will rise.

Should Greece falter, mortgage rates will fall.

Mortgage rates are expected to remain volatile for at least the next 3 weeks. If you’re floating a mortgage rate or wondering whether it’s time to lock a rate with your lender, consider locking in. With mortgage rates at 3.62% on average, rates have much more room to rise than to fall. 

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : June 25, 2012

Fed Funds Rate 2006-2012Mortgage markets worsened last week as Greece tentatively formed a government and the Federal Reserve extended its Operation Twist program by $267 billion.

Neither event, however, removed the uncertainty surrounding global markets.

First, Greece must still adhere to stringent austerity measures in order to meet the terms of its IMF bailout. Its new government, however, may seek to revise the terms of its fiscal austerity, a move that would keep the nation-state — and the European Union — in fragile balance.

As Greece comes closer to resolution, U.S. mortgage rates are likely to rise. This is because economic uncertainty in Greece has helped to keep mortgage rates down since 2010. A reversal in policy would cause mortgage rates to reverse higher.

Second, it’s clear that Wall Street expected more from the Federal Reserve.

The nation’s central banker made moves to pressure long-term rates lower last week, but did little else to prop up an economy it believes will grow only “very gradually” over the next few quarters. Stock markets got a gentle boost from the Fed’s new stimulus, and mortgage rates suffered only slightly.

Overall, conforming mortgage rates in Maine rose slightly last week, and much of the action occurred after Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage rate survey concluded Tuesday afternoon.

According to the government-backed mortgage-securitizer, 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates fell 5 basis points to 3.66% nationwide, on average last week. This was the lowest recorded 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate on record as this year’s Refinance Boom continues.

The 15-year fixed rate mortgage rate also dropped, stopping at 2.95%, on average. This is 0.01 higher than the benchmark rate’s all-time low — a record set two weeks ago.

Buyers and would-be refinancers trying to lock a rate this morning may find pricing to be slightly worse.

This week, mortgage markets will continue to take cues from Europe, and from a bevy of U.S. economic data including the New Home Sales report and the release of the Pending Home Sales Index.

Mortgage rates remain near all-time lows. If you’re considering a home purchase or refinance, the timing looks good.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : June 18, 2012

FOMC meets this weekMortgage markets improved last week, moving mortgage rates in Maine back on a downward trajectory. Wall Street investors bid down mortgage bond yields on weaker-than-expected economic data from the U.S. and concern for events within the Eurozone.

Freddie Mac reports the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate at 3.71% for borrowers willing to pay 0.7 discount points plus accompanying closing costs. 

It’s the second-lowest reading in Freddie Mac’s recorded history and, as a point of comparison, one year ago, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 4.50% nationwide.

A homeowner giving a $200,000 mortgage at last year’s 4.50% rate would have paid $1,013 monthly for principal + interest. Today, that same homeowner pays just $922 per month — nine percent less.

Mortgage rates may drop even more this week.

Sunday, in Greece’s bid to re-elect a government, a pro-bailout party won the most votes in a highly-watched election, dampening fears that Greece may leave the European Union. However, the winning party must still form a new government and it beat the “anti-bailout” party by just 3 points — 30% to 27%. Some analysts question whether Greece can form a coalition government within its required 3-day window.

If Greece fails to form a government, the nation-state’s future in the European Union will, again, be in doubt — a potentially positive development for U.S. mortgage rates.

Also this week, the Federal Open Market Committee meets for its fourth scheduled meeting of the year, a two-day event beginning Wednesday. The FOMC doesn’t set mortgage rates, but it does set U.S. monetary policy which can have an effect on mortgage rates. If the Federal Reserve votes to add new stimulus, mortgage rates may rise on concerns for inflation.

The FOMC is not expected to add new stimulus.

And, lastly, this week will see the release of several housing reports including the homebuilder confidence survey, the Existing Home Sales report, and the Housing Starts report. Strength in housing may be viewed as a plus for the economy, which can cause mortgage rates to rise.

Expect volatility this week as mortgage markets wrestle with events at home and abroad. This may be aprudent time to lock a floating mortgage rate. 

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : June 11, 2012

Spain Bailout USD$125 billionMortgage markets worsened last week, halting a multi-week mortgage rate winning streak in Maine and nationwide. With little economic news on which to trade, investors took their cues from the world’s central banks.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke neither dismissed nor promised new market stimulus in the near future, nor did leaders in the Eurozone. China, however, did cut its interest rates for the first time since the start of the global financial crisis.

Conforming mortgage rates edged higher amid a series of volatile trading sessions. Mortgage bonds moved more sharply as compared to prior weeks and analysts expect volatility to continue.

Last week, the biggest story was the ongoing deterioration of confidence within the Eurozone. While Greece continues to struggle under its national debt load, Spain emerged as the area’s newest bailout candidate. Then, on Saturday, the bailout was confirmed.

In seeking up to 100 billion euros ($125 billion), Spain becomes the fourth European Union nation to seek bailout funds since the debt crisis began nearly three years ago. 

The Spain bailout temporarily overshadows investor concern for Greece and the nation-state’s June 17 election.

Sunday, the citizens of Greece will vote to elect a new government, the outcome of which may determine whether Greece remains a member of the European Union. If Greece leaves the EU, it would likely make a negative impact on equities markets, and would benefit U.S. mortgage rates.

This week, mortgage markets will take their cues from the political and economic developments abroad. Initially, investors are looking favorably upon the Spain resolution, and mortgage rates are rising as a result. As the Greek election nears, however, that trend may change.

With little or no data set for release, this week’s mortgage rates are subject to investor sentiment. Expect volatility.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates : Week Of June 4, 2012

Unemployment RateMortgage markets improved last week in response to ongoing concerns for the European Union and an across-the-board weakening in U.S. economic data — including the much-watched jobs report.

Conforming mortgage rates in Maine eased lower last week, falling to a new all-time low for 6th week in a row. The moves have been modest, however, falling just 15 basis points during that period.

Back then, Freddie Mac reported the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage to be 3.90% for borrowers willing to pay 0.8 discount points plus a full set a closing costs.

Today, it reports a rate of 3.75% with 0.7 discount points plus closing costs.

The total savings today as compared to April 19 is $8 per month plus $100 in discount points per $100,000 borrowed. This is not a huge monthly discount, but it still lowers a monthly payment. Home affordability remains at its highest point in recorded history.

Mortgage rates may move lower still.

Last week, there was little improvement in the Eurozone with respect to Greece and its future as a member of the European Union. In addition, Spain and Italy saw their respective borrowing costs rise sharply.

Also, Spain is in the process of natiionalizing one of its largest lenders and investors fear the Spain’s government will soon seek financial assistance.

The uncertainty for the future of Europe’s economic union has been driving demand for the relatively-safe U.S. mortgage bond asset class, a pattern known in trading circles as “safe haven” buying. The added demand pushes bond prices up, and bond yields (and mortgage rates) down.

The weaker-than-expected May jobs report also contributed to last week’s falling rates. Job growth is tied to the economy and when job growth is soft, investors are less willing to take risks in the equity markets. Here, again, bond markets benefit and mortgage rates fall.

This week, there is little economic data set for release so expect mortgage markets to take their cues for political and economic news from abroad. With mortgage rates low, though, the timing may be right for a rate lock.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates : Week Of May 29, 2012

Jobs in focus this weekMortgage markets worsened slightly last week as demand for mortgage-backed bonds slacked. There was little surprise in U.S. economic data and the unfolding story lines of the Eurozone continued unabated.

Mortgage rates in Maine worsened slightly on the news, climbing for the first time in two weeks.

The change was a small one, however, and rates only eased higher Wednesday through Friday. As such, Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage rate survey failed to capture the change – Freddie Mac’s survey is conducted Monday and Tuesday. 

According to the Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate slipped to 3.78% last week, on average, down from 3.79% during the week prior. At the same time, the number of discount points charged by banks increased to 0.8 from 0.7.

Stated differently, 30-year fixed rates mortgage rates dropped but mortgage applicants paid higher fees to get access to them. 1 discount point is equal to $1,000 per $100,000 borrowed.

Freddie Mac also reported no change in the 15-year fixed rate and the 5-year adjustable rate mortgage rates. Average mortgage rates for the twp benchmark products remained at 3.04% and 2.83%, respectively, with no change in discount points.

This week, mortgage rates figure to show a bit more movement. It’s a 4-day week because markets were closed for Memorial Day, and there is a glut of new data set for release. Most notably, the May Non-Farm Payrolls report hits Friday morning.

The jobs report affects mortgage rates because mortgage rates are linked to U.S. economic strength. Wall Street is expecting to see 164,000 net new jobs created in May. If the actual results fall short of that estimate, mortgage rates should fall. If the actual number exceeds estimates, mortgage rates should rise.

Other releases include the Case-Shiller Index, Consumer Confidence, the Pending Home Sales Index, and Personal Income and Outlays. 

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : May 21, 2012

Existing Home Sales Mortgage bonds improved last week on lingering concerns for the European Union, plus weaker-than-expected economic data here at home. Global investors were net buyers of mortgage-backed securities last week, pushing mortgage rates lower nationwide.

According to Freddie Mac’s mortgage rate survey, conforming 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates slipped to 3.79%, on average, last week for borrowers willing to pay 0.7 discount points and a full set of closing costs.

This is the lowest on-record.

15-year conforming fixed rate mortgage rates also fell to a new all-time low, registering 3.05% with 0.7 discount points and closing costs.

1 discount point is equal to 1 percent of your loan size.

Unfortunately, not all mortgage applicants in Maine are getting access to Freddie Mac’s posted rates. This is because the “national mortgage rates” assume a 30-day closing window and few banks have been closing loans in 30 days lately. Persistently low mortgage rates have created an appraiser scarcity which, among other reasons, is forcing banks to stretch the traditional 30-day closing window by fifteen days or more.

Longer rate locks carry higher mortgage rates.

For home buyers in Belfast , purchase money loans can often be accommodated in 30 days. For refinancing households, however, the process can take up to 60 days. As a result, refinancing homeowners are finding the 3.79% mortgage rates promised by Freddie Mac’s survey somewhat elusive.

This week, though, as chatter of a European Union dissolution grows, investors are seeking safety of principal. Lately, they’ve been finding it in the U.S. mortgage bond market. As demand for mortgage bonds rises, mortgage rates should fall for both 30-day locks and 60-day ones.

This will aid everyone looking for a home loan.

Other news set for release this week includes April’s Existing Home Sales report and New Home Sales report. Both will be closely watched because housing is tied to U.S. economic recovery. Strong results in either data set may push mortgage rates higher. 

Home Affordability Getting A Springtime Boost From Greece

Greece affects U.S. mortgage ratesHome affordability is receiving a boost from across the Atlantic Ocean this spring.

For the third time in as many years, a weakening Eurozone is pushing May mortgage rates to new lows throughout Maine and nationwide.

The story centers in Greece and begins in 2010.

2 years ago, it was uncovered that successive Greece governments had purposefully misreported the nation-state’s economic statistics in order to meet European Union standards. The fraudulent data had permitted Greek governments to spend beyond their means while hiding deficits from EU auditors.

The realization that Greece was heavy in debt with little means to repay its creditors resulted in a massive bailout from the IMF and the rest of the Eurozone nations. The terms for Greece said that, in order to receive its €110 billion aid package, Greece would be required to enact strict spending controls.

This is known as “austerity” and the deal was met with outrage by the Greek public. There’s been general social unrest ever since and, on May 6 of this year, Greece held a special “early election” to elect all 300 members to its legislature.

No party won majority in the elections.

7 different groups garnered seats in the parliament last week with anti-austerity groups faring well. It’s spurred concern that Greece will end its bid for fiscal restraint, and that Greece may choose to leave the 17-nation Eurozone.

The uncertainty surrounding Greece is helping U.S. mortgage rates to make new lows. As concerns mount for the future of Greece — and the Eurozone, in general — global investors seek safer markets for their money.

The U.S. mortgage-backed bond market is one such market.

With the implied backing of the U.S. government, mortgage-backed bonds are viewed as nearly risk-less and investors clamor for safety of principal during uncertain times. The boost in demand drives bond prices up and bond yields down, resulting in lower mortgage rates for home buyers and refinancing households of Houlton.

So long as Greece struggles to form its government and flirts with a sovereign debt default, mortgage rates should continue to face downward pressure. U.S. rates may not fall week after week, but analysts expect any rise in rates to be muted.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : April 23, 2012

FOMC meets this weekMortgage markets were mostly unchanged last week, breaking a three-week winning streak. Wall Street grappled with surprising demand on Spain’s debt issuance and a series of weaker-than-expected data points on U.S. housing.

Conforming mortgage rates across Maine rose slightly according to the weekly Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey.

Nationwide, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate climbed 2 basis points to 3.90%. This rate is available to homeowners willing to pay 0.8 discount points and a full set of closing costs, where 1 discount point is equal to 1 percent of the borrowed amount.

Prior to last week’s survey, just 0.7 discount points were required.

This week, mortgage rates are expected to be volatile. There is a lot of economic data due for release, the Eurozone’s issues with sovereign debt remain unresolved, and the Federal Open Market Committee gets together for a scheduled, 2-day meeting.

On the data front, the week starts with Tuesday’s Consumer Confidence figures and the government’s New Home Sales report. Both have the power to move mortgage rates. The week then concludes with the Pending Home Sales Index; the GDP release; and a series of Treasury auctions.

With respect to Europe, demand remains strong for debt from Spain, but at much higher rates as compared to several weeks ago. The same is true for Italy. Both nations are feared to be at risk of default on their respective sovereign debt. It’s a similar situation to that which occurred in Greece throughout 2011.

Long-term, lingering concerns for Spain and Italy would likely help keep U.S. mortgage rates suppressed.

And, lastly, the Federal Reserve will make a statement to markets Wednesday afternoon. The Fed is the nation’s central banker and its post-meeting press releases have tremendous influence on bond markets, including those for mortgage-backed bonds.

By extension, therefore, the Federal Reserve’s statement has the power to move mortgage rates in and around Houlton.

If you’re shopping for mortgage rates, it’s as good of a time as any to lock with your lender. Rates have more room to rise than to fall.